Race 7 at Belmont Park on Saturday, June 8 | Post Time 3:22 PM Eastern Time

Acorn Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $700,000 | One Mile | Fillies, Three Years Olds

 

I only see two outcomes here, with either Ce Ce (9) or Guarana (7) winning, even in this deep and talented field. Ce Ce gets preference as she opens at 9/2 odds compared to morning line favorite Guarana at 2 to 1. Ce Ce won her debut powerfully in “ridden out” fashion in April with a strong 102 Equibase figure, then even though losing by a neck on the wire in her second career start on May 11, Ce Ce improved to a graded stakes quality 114 figure. That is by far the best (fastest) figure any horse in this race earned except one (Guarana), even Kentucky Oaks winner (Serengeti Empress – 103). From an outside post there is every reason to believe Ce Ce can run even better here for underrated trainer McCarthy, who is a solid stakes level trainer, having trained Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup winner City of Light.

Guarana has only run once, on April 19, so it might be tough to bet her to win at very low odds because she’s moving all the way to the grade 1 level. However, these are all three year olds, mostly lightly raced, and that race she ran was visually impressive as she drew off to win “under wraps” by almost 15 lengths. There’s no way to know who she beat, but in essence she was running against the clock only. The 107 figure earned would win most graded stakes for three year olds at this time of year so just repeating the effort, or improving upon it if Ce Ce regresses, could be more than good enough for Guarana to win this grade 1 stakes in only the second start of her career. 

Serengeti Empress (1),  Jeltrin (2), Cookie Dough (3) and Fancy Dress Party (5) are all very good horses in their own right, but I think they are all a cut below Ce Ce and Guarana so I’ll only use them in second on exacta and trifecta tickets.

 

Betting Strategies:

Win Bets: Ce Ce (9) to win at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.

Note: In the unlikely event Guarana (7) is anywhere near 9 to 5 or 2 to 1 at post time, I would bet her to win as well.

Exactas:

Box Ce Ce (9) and Guarana (7)

Also, Ce Ce (9) and Guarana (7) over Ce Ce (9), Guarana (7),  Serengeti Empress (1),  Jeltrin (2), Cookie Dough (3) and Fancy Dress Party (5).

Trifecta: Ce Ce (9) and Guarana (7) over Ce Ce (9), Guarana (7),  Serengeti Empress (1),  Jeltrin (2), Cookie Dough (3) and Fancy Dress Party (5) over Ce Ce (9), Guarana (7),  Serengeti Empress (1),  Jeltrin (2), Cookie Dough (3) and Fancy Dress Party (5).