Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 3, 2019
Race 10 at Saratoga on Saturday, August 3 | Post Time 6:22 PM Eastern Time
Fasig-Tipton De La Rose Stakes | Purse $100,000 | One Mile on Inner Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward
As a good betting race, we couldn’t ask for much more than this 11 horse field going a mile on turf, with no strong favorite and many possibilities, which means if right we can make a bundle. I’m going to start with Desert Isle (1), who opens at 20/1. The first thing in favor of her running well is she draws the rail. She has shown tactical speed as she won a turf route one before last on 5/27 leading from start to finish and she rallied from fourth of eight to win last time out on 6/29. Junior Alvarado rode her for the first time last time out and rode her exceptionally well so he gets the call again, for a top trainer in Graham Motion who knows where to spot his horses. As her only stakes win came last time out in a race restricted to Ontario (Canada) breds, she’s going to be ignored here compared to others coming out of graded stakes but I think I see what Motion was doing as the race gave her a lot of confidence and as she’s got the breeding to be a multiple stakes winner in open company. Her three siblings on the dam’s side are all multiple stakes winners and winners on turf, having earned $500K, $920K and $725K. Most of them ran their best as four year olds which is what Desert Isle is now so considering the two best races of her career came in her last two starts, we might see even better here.
Got Stormy (8) is likely to be the favorite, but a lukewarm one at that, opening at 3 to 1. Two races back she wasn’t disgraced a bit when beaten a length and one-half by Rushing Fall in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes now in her subsequent start when second to Beau Recall in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile on Derby day. She won a classified allowance before that and won the Grade 3 Ontario Colleen Stakes 13 months ago so can win with her best effort but is not a standout.
Capla Temptress (7) doesn’t open at double digit odds like Desert Isle but her 8/1 odds are enticing as well as higher than they should be in my opinion. As a two year old 23 months ago she won the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes then the following may finished fourth of 14, beaten just a few necks, in the French Oaks. Last summer over a very soft turf course at Saratoga she rallied for second into Rushing Fall so that gives her something in common with Got Stormy. This year, Capla Temptress lost her first two races, both graded stakes including a seventh place finish in the same Distaff Turf Mile Got Stormy finished second in. However, she woke up nicely last time out on 7/13 when Jose Ortiz rode her for the first time, making a bold four wide rally from sixth on the far turn to lead in the stretch before drawing off by a length. Now that she’s back in winning form and with Ortiz riding back, I see no reason she can’t run well enough to post the mild upset or at least complete what could be a very profitable exacta.
Desert Isle (1) to win and place at 4 to 1 odds or higher.
Also, Capla Temptress (7) to win at 7 to 2 odds or higher.
Although unlikely to meet minimum odds, Got Stormy (8) can be bet to win at 3 to 1 or more.
Because the race is very wide open and because two of the three contenders may be high odds near post time, I think taking a shot with exactas using the field has enough potential for big profit it is worth the risk.
Desert Isle (1), Capla Temptress (7) and Got Stormy (8) over ALL. (If all 11 run the cost at the $1 minimum level is $30).
Then, perhaps instead of a place bet, or in case a longshot wins and Desert Isle or Capla Temptress finishes second:
ALL over Desert Isle (1) and Capla Temptress (7).