Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 23, 2019
Race 8 at Woodbine on Saturday, November 23 | Post Time 4:41 PM Eastern Time
Kennedy Road Stakes | Purse $175,000 | Six Furlongs (All Weather Track) | Three Years Old and Upward
In my opinion, perhaps humble, perhaps not, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind Extravagant Kid (2) was the best horse in last month’s Woodford Stakes, a similar grade 2 stakes, but on turf. Taking an inside path under the Jose Ortiz, who is currently second among all jockeys in North American in earnings for the year, Extravagant Kid had something happen that often happens when horses rally inside as he was stopped and steadied in traffic and never had a path to run or a chance to run as well as he would have if not for the traffic trouble. Considering his other five races this year were all “A” efforts, consisting of three wins and two runner-up finishes, another effort good enough to win was likely if not for that trouble. Although Extravagant Kid has done most of his running on grass over the few years, two of his BEST efforts came on the all-weather main track at Woodbine, when second to Pink Lloyd in the 2018 Grade 3 Cartier Stakes with a 111 Equibase Figure, and again when second to Pink Lloyd in the 2019 Cartier with a 102 figure. Following this year’s Cartier, Extravagant Kid won the Mighty Beau, led late and ended up second in the Grade 1 Highlander, then won the Da Hoss Stakes. Rafael Hernandez, who rode Extravagant Kid to his big second place finish in the Highlander the last time he raced at Woodbine, takes the call, and with a clean trip Extravagant Kid can reverse the tables on Pink Lloyd from this year’s Cartier.
Richiesinthehouse (4) is another tremendously consistent runner, with 13 wins in 19 career races including a six for nine record this year. Perhaps better still, Richiesinthehouse has won ALL six races he’s run at six to six and one half-furlongs on all-weather. The most recent of those was his first and only race on the main track at Woodbine, three weeks ago in a classified allowance race. Shipping to Woodbine from trainer Rivelli’s Illinois base to run over the track was a great idea, and after the win Richiesinthehouse returned to Illinois for a very sharp half-mile workout one week ago. With 107 figures twice this year and with a career best figure last year as good as the best Pink Lloyd has ever earned, Richiesinthehouse is one of three horses in this race which possess the bulk of the probability to win.
There’s no doubt Pink Lloyd (6) can win, particularly as he has a 16 for 17 record from six to six and one-half furlongs and has won 21 races on the Woodbine main track. However, there’s also no doubt Pink Lloyd has some bad habits when leaving the gate, having hopped at the start or reared up in six of his last 12 races. Ignoring the last start on 9/14 when he was declared a non-starter, a race he may not have won even if he broke correctly, Pink Lloyd has lost three times 13 starts this year and last, so there are times when, for whatever reason, a horse or more finishes in front of him. Particularly last year he suffered two losses at the end of his 2018 campaign and so perhaps at the end of his 2019 campaign there’s enough of an opportunity for either Extravagant Kid or Richiesinthehouse to win.
Win Bets: Extravagant Kid (2) to win at odds of 9/5 or more, a true “low odds overlay” win bet.
For a slightly smaller amount, Richiesinthehouse (4) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
Exactas: Box Extravagant Kid (2), Richiesinthehouse (4) and Pink Lloyd (6).
Extravagant Kid (2), Richiesinthehouse (4) and Pink Lloyd (6) over ALL.
Extravagant Kid (2), Richiesinthehouse (4) and Pink Lloyd (6) over Extravagant Kid (2), Richiesinthehouse (4) and Pink Lloyd (6) over ALL.