Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 7, 2019
Race 8 at Aqueduct | Saturday, December 7 | Post Time 3:13 PM Eastern Time
Demoiselle Stakes – Grade 2| Purse $250,000 | One and One Eighth Miles | Two Year Old Fillies
Lake Avenue (12) dominated to win by 12 lengths last month over the track at seven furlongs with a strong 93 Equibase Speed Figure which is tied with Blame Debbie (9) for the not only the best last race figure in the field but the best figure by any horse in the field. Stretching out from seven to nine furlongs should be no issue whatsoever for this daughter of Tapit, and trainer Bill Mott, who is conservative by nature, is very strong when showing confidence going from maiden to stakes with young horses. Some examples of the trainer's prowess when knowing his horses can make the jump include Country House (second in the Risen Star), Hofburg (second in the Florida Derby), Tacitus (won the Tampa Bay Derby) and Carina Mia (won the Golden Rod). This filly has quality breeding on the dam's side as well with dam Seventh Street having won the Go for Wand and Apple Blossom and with one of her other foals being Marking, who has won three of eight and over $400K to date. As such, Lake Avenue is a very strong win contender in this year's Demoiselle and an even stronger contender to be part of the exacta.
Blame Debbie (9) ran creditably when second to a runaway winner sprinting in August in her career debut, then improved markedly when sent around two turns for the first time next time out on October 6. She led from start to finish and dominated by three lengths but considering she finished well for second in her debut and does not wear blinkers, I do not believe she's a need-the-lead type. The 93 figure earned was strong and she's one of only three horses in the field with positive two-turn experience. My slight concern is sons and daughters of Blame don't have the kind of success in two turn stakes, particularly as young horses, as sons and daughters of Tapit (like Lake Avenue and Maedean). Still, considering Castellano rides and Motion trains, Blame Debbie must get some respect as a contender in this race.
Maedean (2) is one of only two horses in the field with two wins, and the ONLY previous "open" (not restricted) stakes winner in the field. She broke her maiden on October 5 in career start number two, at a mile around one turn at Belmont, then one month later Maedean won the Tempted Stakes powerfully by five lengths, earning an 84 figure in the process. She's got a nice stalking style and Saez rides back after getting to know her last out. As another daughter of Tapit, there's no concern about the mile and one-eighth trip and if she takes a slight step forward she could run as well as top two contenders.
I Dare You (8) also broke her maiden last time out, in her career debut, at Belmont at the end of October. She led from start to finish to win and although the 80 Equibase Figure earned in her debut pales compared to the 93 figure Lake Avenue earned in her win last month, it must be noted Lake Avenue went from 85 to 93 so it may be logical to assume I Dare You can jump up by about 10 points or so and run a competitive race in this situation. Similar to Mott, trainer Weaver has had superb success going from maiden races to stakes with young horse, most notably with Vekoma winning the 2018 Nashua Stakes sand Point of Honor winning the Suncoast Stakes.
Since we have a 12 horse field to work with, we can add a couple of other horses for second on exacta and trifecta tickets and third on trifecta tickets. Those are Glass Ceiling (3) and Water White (11). Glass Ceiling powered off by nearly five lengths to break her maiden in a sprint in October at Keeneland in her second career start. That was a maiden claiming race so some may think she is outclassed BUT the trainer who claimed her was Danny Gargan, who already proved savvy claiming Tax last year out of a maiden claimer to run third in the Remsen on this day then win the Withers in the winter. With two very strong workouts coming into the race I would be very hesitant to leave Glass Ceiling off our exotic wager tickets. Water White improved from fourth in her August debut, to second (after leading late) to win a few weeks back over the track. She's in the strong Rodriguez barn and the only other foal of the dam was a multiple winner. The 85 figure earned in the win was a good as the 84 Maedean earned so Water White can't be discounted as a contender.
Win Bets: Lake Avenue (12) to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher (possibly as low as 2 to 1).
A win bet on Blame Debbie (9) can be considered at odds of 7 to 2 or more.
Smaller bets can be considered on Maedean (2) and on I Dare You (8) at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.
(Any can be bet to place at odds of 8 to 1 or more)
Maedean (2), I Dare You (8), Blame Debbie (9) and Lake Avenue (12) over Maedean (2), I Dare You (8), Blame Debbie (9), Lake Avenue (12), Glass Ceiling (3) and Water White (11).
For a smaller amount (for example $1 versus $2 for the exacta tickets above), play the reverse of that exacta, which is Maedean (2), I Dare You (8), Blame Debbie (9), Lake Avenue (12), Glass Ceiling (3) and Water White (11) over Maedean (2), I Dare You (8), Blame Debbie (9) and Lake Avenue (12).
Maedean (2), I Dare You (8), Blame Debbie (9) and Lake Avenue (12) over Maedean (2), I Dare You (8), Blame Debbie (9), Lake Avenue (12), Glass Ceiling (3) and Water White (11) over Maedean (2), I Dare You (8), Blame Debbie (9), Lake Avenue (12), Glass Ceiling (3) and Water White (11).