Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | January 18, 2020
Race 12 at Fair Grounds | Saturday, January 18 | Post Time 6:23 PM Eastern Time
Silverbulletday Stakes | Purse $150,000 | One Mile and Seventy Yards | Fillies, Three Years Old
Obviously, Finite (6) is the one to beat, having won both the Rags to Riches Stakes and Golden Rod Stakes in succession. Never worse than second in five races, she's a half-sister to Reride, who ran similarly well winning four of his first five races including two stakes races. With it being likely Ursula (3), who is stretching out from three sprints and who was first or second early in her last two races, is going to be out in front and on a faster than average early pace, and with that pace pushed by His Glory (4), who was first or second in two routes including the Pocahontas Stakes, before finishing sixth in the Golden Rod, Finite should be in a similar position to where she was in the Golden Rod before passing the tiring leaders on the turn to get the lead before the eighth pole then go on to win.
Then there's Portrait (7), who destroyed the field by 12 lengths in her first start on dirt, second career start, last August, at seven furlongs. Stretched out to two turns for the Pocahontas, Portrait made a small move to get to third then ran evenly the last three-eighths of a mile. She's likely grown up since last September and has a shot, particularly for very competent Brad Cox and with a very good series of workouts over the track. On the other hand, it's possible she's better around one turn.
That brings us to my top play in the race, if for no other reason she's going to be pretty much ignored by most bettors. Maga Suite (5) is a very well-bred daughter of Palace Malice who is stretching out to two turns for low profile connections. She ran ninth in her debut, sixth in her second start, then put it all together to win third time out. Although the race was on turf, I'm not a believer she is a turf horse as her dam, Guest House, produced Guest Suite, who was a multiple stakes winner INCLUDING THE LeComte Stakes on this date in 2017. With a very strong 47.6 half-mile workout over the track one week ago which was the best of 83 on the day at the distance, and with a stalking style which will benefit from the contested early pace, I'll take a swing with Maga Suite to improve and possibly post the upset, at the least completing the exacta for a hefty profit as she opens at 20/1.
For some exotic bets I'll also consider His Glory (4) and Tempers Rising (1), the former because she may hang on after batting for the early lead and the latter a dead closer with Leparoux riding who can be passing many of these late as she has in every race to date, winning one and finishing second three times from five starts.
Win Bets: Maga Suite (5) to win at 4 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 7 to 1 or more.
Finite (6) and Portrait (7) over Tempers Rising (1), His Glory (4), Maga Suite (5), Finite (6) and Portrait (7).
Also, because Finite is going to be the prohibitive favorite and unplayable as a win bet:
Finite (6) over Tempers Rising (1), His Glory (4), Maga Suite (5) and Portrait (7).
(Note: you can play the above exacta as a trifecta as well, using the same four horses in the second and third positions).
Maga Suite (5) over ALL, then ALSO, the opposite, which is ALL over Maga Suite (5).
Note: The second bet above (ALL over Maga Suite) can be used instead of a place bet.
Box Maga Suite (5), Finite (6) and Portrait (7).